Today, the federal government shutdown has put the release of the crucial monthly jobs report and other economic statistics at risk, potentially leaving markets and policymakers without official data for weeks. The monthly jobs report that normally lands on Fridays was among the releases flagged as likely to be postponed.
The Department of Labor’s contingency memo says agencies like the Bureau of Labor Statistics will “suspend all operations” if funding lapses — meaning not only payrolls but upcoming inflation reads and Commerce Department releases could be delayed. That matters because the Federal Reserve and markets rely on those series to judge labor-market slack and inflation trends ahead of coming policy decisions.
The timing is acute: data that would ordinarily inform the Fed’s October and November deliberations — including the mid-October Consumer Price Index — may not be available, forcing officials to lean on lower-quality private indicators. The lack of timely official inflation and payroll data increases the odds of policy mistakes or surprise market moves if private proxies diverge from the usual government series.
Why it matters: investors will have to trade with a murkier economic picture, volatility around policy-sensitive assets is likely to increase, and ordinary businesses and households will face greater planning uncertainty if guidance from agencies and statistics offices is interrupted. Watch how long the shutdown lasts: a short lapse typically has limited economic effect, but an extended blackout magnifies the risks to markets and to the Fed’s data-dependent decision-making.
