Will legal limbo around U.S. tariffs seriously disrupt global trade? An appeals court ruling that Trump’s sweeping tariffs exceeded presidential authority sent shockwaves through U.S. partners. While tariffs (currently 10% base, higher for some) remain pending appeal, the potential for refunds on hundreds of billions of dollars of collected duties is looming—a scenario leaves allies like Canada and the EU both confused and bracing for diplomatic fallout. President Trump, meanwhile, has warned a reversal would make the U.S. a “Third World Nation”—but independent analysts peg tariff-driven investment at a fraction of his $15 trillion claim.
Geopolitical risks are also swirling: September brings a potential French government shakeup, ongoing Russia-Ukraine tensions, and doubts about the durability of U.S.-China trade truces. Energy prices and defense stocks are on watch as headline risks remain high.
