The next month will put these trends to the test. Will US consumers keep spending as higher tariffs filter through to prices? Market volatility and recession whispers will grow louder if job growth stays soft or spending falters. Watch for updates on sector-specific tariffs—especially on chips and pharmaceuticals—as the White House tries to ratchet up the pressure. China’s export numbers in the weeks after tariffs bite will be a critical bellwether of global economic realignment. Bottom line: The trade war that’s been brewing for years is finally hitting wallets, markets, and growth—so expect less status quo, and more unexpected moves ahead.

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