The ripple effects from Trump's tariffs are just starting to show. Over the next weeks, watch for:
- Inflation and consumer spending data—Do anticipated price hikes reach store shelves and slow broader demand?
- Fed policy moves—With Miran's nomination and mounting rate cut pressure, could the central bank move faster to offset trade damage?
- Retaliation and trade re-alignment—Expect trading partners to escalate countermeasures or shift supply chains
- Corporate earnings surprises—Pay special attention to consumer goods, tech, and global exporters for early signs of pain or resilience
The underlying question: Can the US economy weather rising protectionism without tipping into stagflation? September’s data releases and global policy moves could set the tone for the rest of 2025.
