Is this a last hurrah for China’s exports? With the next round of US tariffs looming, China’s July exports unexpectedly surged 7.2% compared to last year, as shippers rushed to beat new trade barriers. But beneath the headline, exports to the US actually dropped 21.7% year-on-year, offset by sharply rising shipments to Southeast Asia and the EU. Will this export pivot be enough for China to sustain growth as the US market closes off? Factories are already reporting weakening demand, and the July manufacturing index dipped to a three-month low.
Negotiations continue over rare earths and semiconductors, with signs of tactical concessions on both sides. Still, the clock for new tariffs is ticking, and China’s trade surplus—now at $683.5 billion year-to-date—faces mounting political and economic pressure.
