China industrial profits rise 21.1% in May, down 3.6 percentage points from April
January–May profits climbed 18.8% year over year, led by electronics makers, while automakers and furniture producers logged declines.
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Markets
Nike earnings, ADP data, and Thursday jobs report set a volatile, holiday-short week
June jobs report arrives Thursday, a day early, with payrolls and wage growth set to shape the Fed’s rate path as markets close Friday for Independence Day.
BIS urges debt reduction and wider non-bank oversight amid fragile markets, elevated valuations
PCE at 4.1% and core 3.4% spur traders to price 64% odds of a September Fed hike
Kalshi prices 14.2% odds of 2.6% to 3.0% GDP growth in 2026
Big Tech AI spending tests cash flow after $2.7 trillion June drop
Economy
China industrial profits rise 21.1% in May, down 3.6 percentage points from April
January–May profits climbed 18.8% year over year, led by electronics makers, while automakers and furniture producers logged declines.
Kalshi prices 14.2% odds of 2.6% to 3.0% GDP growth in 2026
Bessent Says U.S. GDP Can Return to 3% Growth This Year
Markets
Nike earnings, ADP data, and Thursday jobs report set a volatile, holiday-short week
June jobs report arrives Thursday, a day early, with payrolls and wage growth set to shape the Fed’s rate path as markets close Friday for Independence Day.
Historical Analysis
Japan’s Lost Decades: What global aging teaches
This report examines the structural drivers of Japanification and balance sheet recessions to help investors identify future global economic risks.
Geopolitics
Strategic Non-Alignment Yields Economic Rents Amid 7% Fragmentation Risk
How Midstream Dominance Shapes Energy and Critical Mineral Markets
The Resource Cold War Maps Energy and Rare Earth Bottlenecks
Why Rare Earth Refining and Processing Now Drive Resource Security
Energy, Rare Earths and Supply Chains: Where Resource Bottlenecks Now Sit
Oil prices drop and European stocks rise after Trump halts Iran attack
Company Deep Dive
Alphabet trades near-term free cash flow for long-term dominance in computational utility
Alphabet is shifting from an asset-light ad distributor to a high-capex, vertically integrated provider of synthesized AI intelligence, trading near-term free cash flow for computational utility dominance.
Sector Transformation
Federal drug pricing policies force GLP-1 margin compression and volume dependency
Federal price caps limiting GLP-1 treatments to $350 monthly force pharmaceutical companies to trade premium margins for mass-market volume.