Fed hike odds hit 38% as oil tops $100 a barrel
The FedWatch reading jumped from 12% a week earlier, though most economists polled by FactSet still expect a hold.
Be early. Or be exit liquidity.
A daily update breaking down the moves and narratives driving markets before they hit the mainstream.By subscribing, you accept our Terms & Privacy Policy.
Markets
Dow rises 0.5% to 51,947 as oil retreat eases inflation pressure
Brent fell 5% below $95 after Reuters reported Pakistan is pushing to restart U.S.-Iran talks with China's backing.
Economy
Fed hike odds jump to 38% ahead of Wednesday's decision
Three Fed officials warned in recent speeches that rates may need to rise if inflation doesn't cool from its 3.7% pace.
Fed hike odds hit one in three as oil tops $100 a barrel
Fed rate-hike odds for July jump to 38% from 12% in a week
Kalshi prices 14.2% odds of 2.6% to 3.0% GDP growth in 2026
Bessent Says U.S. GDP Can Return to 3% Growth This Year
Markets
Magnificent Seven loses nearly $800 billion in one day on AI spending
Tesla plunged 14.52% on weak profits, its worst earnings-reaction day on record, and Alphabet fell 7.1%.
Intel falls 6.5% and drags chip stocks to a losing week
Brent crude jumps 7% to $100.69 after Red Sea tanker attacks
Alphabet and Tesla shed about $500 billion on AI spending worries
Nasdaq drops 2.1% as AI spending and $100 oil hit stocks
Nike earnings, ADP data, and Thursday jobs report set a volatile, holiday-short week
Historical Analysis
China industrial profits rise 21.1% in May, down 3.6 percentage points from April
January–May profits climbed 18.8% year over year, led by electronics makers, while automakers and furniture producers logged declines.
16,400 firms stop exporting to the EU as Brexit paperwork and delays hit smaller sellers
Japan’s Lost Decades: What global aging teaches
Enron: Financial engineering, incentives, and the anatomy of a collapse
Broadcom: The quiet compounder at the center of enterprise tech
Broadcom: The quiet compounder at the center of enterprise tech
Geopolitics
Strategic Non-Alignment Yields Economic Rents Amid 7% Fragmentation Risk
BRICS+ now controls 35% of global GDP at purchasing power parity compared to 30% for the G7, creating a structural arbitrage window for non-aligned states to capture premiums from both blocs.
How Midstream Dominance Shapes Energy and Critical Mineral Markets
The Resource Cold War Maps Energy and Rare Earth Bottlenecks
Why Rare Earth Refining and Processing Now Drive Resource Security
Energy, Rare Earths and Supply Chains: Where Resource Bottlenecks Now Sit
Company Deep Dive
Alphabet trades near-term free cash flow for long-term dominance in computational utility
Alphabet is shifting from an asset-light ad distributor to a high-capex, vertically integrated provider of synthesized AI intelligence, trading near-term free cash flow for computational utility dominance.
Sector Transformation
Federal drug pricing policies force GLP-1 margin compression and volume dependency
Federal price caps limiting GLP-1 treatments to $350 monthly force pharmaceutical companies to trade premium margins for mass-market volume.