Kalshi prices 14.2% odds of 2.6% to 3.0% GDP growth in 2026
Bessent said U.S. GDP can return to 3% this year, but first-quarter growth was 1.6% after 0.5% in the prior quarter.
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Markets
Big Tech AI spending tests cash flow after $2.7 trillion June drop
The Magnificent Seven, Broadcom, and Oracle lost about $2.7 trillion in market value in June as investors reassessed AI spending.
Economy
Kalshi prices 14.2% odds of 2.6% to 3.0% GDP growth in 2026
Bessent said U.S. GDP can return to 3% this year, but first-quarter growth was 1.6% after 0.5% in the prior quarter.
Bessent Says U.S. GDP Can Return to 3% Growth This Year
Bessent Says U.S. GDP Can Return to 3% Growth This Year
Markets
Big Tech AI spending tests cash flow after $2.7 trillion June drop
The Magnificent Seven, Broadcom, and Oracle lost about $2.7 trillion in market value in June as investors reassessed AI spending.
Historical Analysis
Japan’s Lost Decades: What global aging teaches
This report examines the structural drivers of Japanification and balance sheet recessions to help investors identify future global economic risks.
Geopolitics
Strategic Non-Alignment Yields Economic Rents Amid 7% Fragmentation Risk
How Midstream Dominance Shapes Energy and Critical Mineral Markets
The Resource Cold War Maps Energy and Rare Earth Bottlenecks
Why Rare Earth Refining and Processing Now Drive Resource Security
Energy, Rare Earths and Supply Chains: Where Resource Bottlenecks Now Sit
Oil prices drop and European stocks rise after Trump halts Iran attack
Company Deep Dive
How TSMC Achieved 59.9% Gross Margin as AI Nodes Eclipse Smartphones
TSMC's commitment to a pure-play foundry model has concentrated market power, allowing it to claim 69.9% of the global foundry market and command a 59.9% gross margin in 2025.
Sector Transformation
Federal drug pricing policies force GLP-1 margin compression and volume dependency
Federal price caps limiting GLP-1 treatments to $350 monthly force pharmaceutical companies to trade premium margins for mass-market volume.