Fed rate-hike odds for July jump to 38% from 12% in a week
Economists polled by FactSet still expect a hold at 3.5% to 3.75% on July 29, the fifth straight meeting without a change.
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Markets
Nasdaq drops 2.1% as AI spending and $100 oil hit stocks
Brent crude gained 7% to settle at $100.69, and the 10-year Treasury yield pushed past 4.7%, its highest since January 2025.
Oracle secures Pentagon deal that promises $441 million in savings
BIS urges debt reduction and wider non-bank oversight amid fragile markets, elevated valuations
PCE at 4.1% and core 3.4% spur traders to price 64% odds of a September Fed hike
China industrial profits rise 21.1% in May, down 3.6 percentage points from April
Economy
Bessent Says U.S. GDP Can Return to 3% Growth This Year
Kalshi traders see only a 14.2% chance U.S. GDP lands between 2.6% and 3.0% this year, with higher odds on a 2.1% to 2.5% outcome.
Venezuela plans $240 billion debt restructuring after Maduro’s fall
16,400 UK firms stop exporting to the EU as Brexit trade frictions linger
Factory employment falls to 47.0 as new orders reach a more than four-year high
Manufacturing employment falls to 47.0 as S&P Global survey shows factory growth
Markets
Nike earnings, ADP data, and Thursday jobs report set a volatile, holiday-short week
June jobs report arrives Thursday, a day early, with payrolls and wage growth set to shape the Fed’s rate path as markets close Friday for Independence Day.
Big Tech AI spending tests cash flow after $2.7 trillion June drop
Big Tech loses roughly $2.7 trillion as investors repriced AI build-out
Hyperscalers’ free cash flow falls as AI spending rises
Nasdaq falls 2.21% as AI-linked tech stocks drop across US markets
Kospi tumbled 10% as AI and chip stocks led a global sell-off
Historical Analysis
China industrial profits rise 21.1% in May, down 3.6 percentage points from April
January–May profits climbed 18.8% year over year, led by electronics makers, while automakers and furniture producers logged declines.
16,400 firms stop exporting to the EU as Brexit paperwork and delays hit smaller sellers
Japan’s Lost Decades: What global aging teaches
Enron: Financial engineering, incentives, and the anatomy of a collapse
Broadcom: The quiet compounder at the center of enterprise tech
Broadcom: The quiet compounder at the center of enterprise tech
Geopolitics
Strategic Non-Alignment Yields Economic Rents Amid 7% Fragmentation Risk
BRICS+ now controls 35% of global GDP at purchasing power parity compared to 30% for the G7, creating a structural arbitrage window for non-aligned states to capture premiums from both blocs.
How Midstream Dominance Shapes Energy and Critical Mineral Markets
The Resource Cold War Maps Energy and Rare Earth Bottlenecks
Why Rare Earth Refining and Processing Now Drive Resource Security
Energy, Rare Earths and Supply Chains: Where Resource Bottlenecks Now Sit
Company Deep Dive
Alphabet trades near-term free cash flow for long-term dominance in computational utility
Alphabet is shifting from an asset-light ad distributor to a high-capex, vertically integrated provider of synthesized AI intelligence, trading near-term free cash flow for computational utility dominance.
Sector Transformation
Federal drug pricing policies force GLP-1 margin compression and volume dependency
Federal price caps limiting GLP-1 treatments to $350 monthly force pharmaceutical companies to trade premium margins for mass-market volume.