Kalshi prices 14.2% odds of 2.6% to 3.0% GDP growth in 2026
Bessent said U.S. GDP can return to 3% this year, but first-quarter growth was 1.6% after 0.5% in the prior quarter.
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Markets
Nike earnings, ADP data, and Thursday jobs report set a volatile, holiday-short week
June jobs report arrives Thursday, a day early, with payrolls and wage growth set to shape the Fed’s rate path as markets close Friday for Independence Day.
BIS urges debt reduction and wider non-bank oversight amid fragile markets, elevated valuations
PCE at 4.1% and core 3.4% spur traders to price 64% odds of a September Fed hike
China industrial profits rise 21.1% in May, down 3.6 percentage points from April
Big Tech AI spending tests cash flow after $2.7 trillion June drop
Economy
Venezuela plans $240 billion debt restructuring after Maduro’s fall
Venezuela is preparing a restructuring for about $240 billion of debt, which would be the largest sovereign workout in history.
16,400 UK firms stop exporting to the EU as Brexit trade frictions linger
Factory employment falls to 47.0 as new orders reach a more than four-year high
Manufacturing employment falls to 47.0 as S&P Global survey shows factory growth
U.S. factory PMI rises to 55.7 as manufacturers rebuild inventories
Markets
Big Tech AI spending tests cash flow after $2.7 trillion June drop
The Magnificent Seven, Broadcom, and Oracle lost about $2.7 trillion in market value in June as investors reassessed AI spending.
Big Tech loses roughly $2.7 trillion as investors repriced AI build-out
Hyperscalers’ free cash flow falls as AI spending rises
Nasdaq falls 2.21% as AI-linked tech stocks drop across US markets
Kospi tumbled 10% as AI and chip stocks led a global sell-off
Nasdaq falls 2.21% as Kospi tumbles 10% in global AI sell-off
Historical Analysis
China industrial profits rise 21.1% in May, down 3.6 percentage points from April
January–May profits climbed 18.8% year over year, led by electronics makers, while automakers and furniture producers logged declines.
16,400 firms stop exporting to the EU as Brexit paperwork and delays hit smaller sellers
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