What’s really going on with the global economy? The outlook is mixed, with many countries managing slowing growth and policy hurdles. In the UK, GDP grew 0.3% in Q2, beating weak expectations—but it’s down from 0.7% in Q1. The UK’s first-half growth is running ahead of other G7 countries, yet much of the resilience is built on higher government spending, while household spending and business investment remain tepid. US tariffs are muting exports and clouding the UK’s future prospects.
Meanwhile, China’s economy faltered in July:
- Retail sales growth of 3.7%—below forecasts, dropping from June’s 4.8%
- Industrial output rose 5.7%—weakest since November 2024
- Property investment contracted 12% in first seven months
- Unemployment among 16-24 year olds remains above 14%
Beijing and Washington extended their tariff ceasefire for 90 days, but deeper disputes remain unresolved—a truce, not a solution. Bottom line: Global growth continues, but much of it is fragile, patchy, and highly sensitive to trade tensions and policy uncertainty.
