Is this the year the holiday consumer finally blinks? If you’re budgeting for gifts, you’re not alone: multiple surveys report Americans plan to spend 5% less this holiday season—the first backtrack since 2020. Gen Z leads the cutbacks with a dramatic 23% drop in planned spending, while baby boomers are the only group looking to spend more (up 5%). Tariffs and rising costs are pushing even more shoppers to value-driven retailers and "dupe" culture.
Gift budgets in particular are under pressure, projected to plunge 11%. Tellingly, nearly 84% of households expect to trim spending in the next six months. And while some will start shopping sooner or switch brands if tariffs lift prices, almost everyone feels the pinch of uncertainty. For retailers and brands, the message is clear: this holiday won’t be business-as-usual.
