Is inflation finally taking its toll—or are government policies just muddying the data? July's Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to show a 0.2% monthly rise and 2.8% annual jump, ticking slightly higher from June’s 2.7% pace. Stripping out food and energy, core inflation is seen jumping 0.3% for July—the largest gain in six months, according to a Yahoo Finance preview. Much of the pressure is coming from tariff-sensitive goods: apparel, furniture, and even motor vehicle parts are not only more expensive, but are likely to keep rising as import tariffs seep further into supply chains.
However, there’s a catch: mounting data quality concerns are clouding these headline numbers. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has suspended on-the-ground data collection in parts of the U.S. and increasingly relies on modeling and assumptions to fill gaps—a shift that amplifies volatility and uncertainty in the official reports.
Why does this matter? Not only are households coping with higher prices (tariff costs are shifting from companies to consumers, per Goldman Sachs analysis in The New York Times), but the tools used to measure these price changes are themselves under strain. Long story short: inflation feels stickier, and our line of sight is getting fuzzier by the month.
