How much pain will new tariffs inflict before the upside shows? The Trump administration’s latest volley—a 50% tariff on most Indian goods—marks a dramatic escalation in trade tensions, putting decades of US-India strategic engagement at risk. Analysts warn that, in aiming for a narrow trade win, the US is underestimating India’s economic resilience and willingness to endure pain rather than appear to kowtow. Jefferies calls this move “personal pique” by Trump, spurred by India’s refusal to offer cover on Pakistan mediation—a decision that could cost India $55–$60 billion in lost exports (India Today).
But the tariff pain is more diffuse than the headlines reflect. Some US businesses have turned chaos into opportunity, as forced innovation drives supply chain reengineering and even new revenue streams. Yet for every firm that navigates around tariffs, many others—including small businesses and Main Street retailers—are seeing higher costs and squeezed margins. The bigger question: At what point do the benefits of “reshoring” and adaptation outweigh the costs passed down to American families?
