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UK Inflation Surprises on the Upside Again

UK Inflation Surprises on the Upside Again

What’s fueling persistent inflation in the UK—and how does it hit everyday life? UK inflation accelerated to 3.8% in July—the highest since January 2024 and slightly above expectations, marking the fourth straight month of rising price pressures. Airfares set a new record for their biggest July jump (+30.2% year-on-year), largely due to the school holiday calendar. Meanwhile, food inflation ticked up to 4.9%, with essentials like coffee, beef, and chocolate leading the way (beef +24.3%, coffee +18%).

  • UK inflation has now climbed 2.1 percentage points since the 2024 trough
  • Core inflation is also sticky at 3.8%
  • Food bank use nationwide is up 32% since 2021–22

The cost squeeze is felt acutely by lower-income Britons, whose weekly grocery bills have soared (families report £310 up to £350 over two years), while hospitality and fast food businesses cite falling visitor numbers. As the Bank of England targets a peak near 4% in September, both government and opposition are trading blame while rolling out competing cost-of-living measures.

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