Oil’s latest pop is being driven less by supply-and-demand fundamentals than by geopolitics: West Texas Intermediate rose 0.6 percent to $98.43 a barrel as traders kept one eye on the Strait of Hormuz and the other on whether the Iran war can really cool off. President Donald Trump’s warning to Tehran over vessel fees in the waterway kept the market nervous, even as talk of a ceasefire circulated.
That tension matters because Hormuz is one of the world’s most important oil chokepoints, and any hint of disruption can push crude higher fast. The Bloomberg report also said US stock futures edged lower as investors weighed the possibility that the ceasefire story may not translate into a clean de-escalation on the ground, with Israeli strikes in Lebanon feeding the caution.
For copper, the market’s problem is almost the opposite. Reuters says China’s refined copper imports slumped to 125,350 tons in February, the weakest monthly total since 2011, even after the metal’s run to record highs earlier this year. China imported 454,000 tons in the first two months of 2026, down 25 percent from a year earlier, while exports surged as domestic smelters increasingly fed the market themselves rather than leaning on foreign supply.
The consequence is a copper market with more Chinese leverage and less automatic upside from tightness. Reuters said LME copper inventories have climbed back to levels last seen in 2013, and Shanghai stocks remain elevated even after the post-holiday drawdown. If Iran tensions ease, copper bulls may get a tailwind from broader macro sentiment, but China’s willingness to resist high prices could cap the rally.
