Macro indicators, policy shifts, and economic forces shaping growth and inflation.
A fiscal-interest rate feedback loop and core PCE at 3.3% are structural forces re-anchoring the 10-year Treasury yield near 4.5% and ending the era of cheap capital.
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Fusce non dolor a magna ultrices suscipit. Suspendisse viverra lacus id lacus accumsan, aliquet fringilla nibh aliquet.
A structural inflation floor driven by tariffs and demographics leaves the Fed with a narrow policy window between reigniting price growth and cracking an overleveraged fiscal position.
U.S. producer prices rose 1.1% in May, lifting the 12-month wholesale inflation rate to 6.5%.
Producer prices rose 1.1% in May, lifting the 12-month wholesale inflation rate to 6.5%, the highest since late 2022.
U.S. consumer prices rose at a 4.2% annual rate in May, the fastest pace in three years, as Iran-related energy disruptions lifted costs.
Brent crude jumped 2.6% to $95.50 a barrel in Asia trading after Iran fired missiles at Israel.
Employers added more than half a million jobs from March through May, a sharp shift from last year’s slowdown.
The share of households saying they are worse off financially rose to 43.7%, the highest since January 2023.
Economists expect the ECB to raise its deposit rate by 0.25 percentage point on Thursday to 2.25%.
A Reuters poll found 74 of 80 economists expect a 25-basis-point hike to lift the deposit rate to 2.25%.
Workers' wages are lagging price growth, with average hourly earnings up 3.6% annually while prices jumped 3.8%, compressing household purchasing power.
