Mortgage rates jump to 6.38% as Iran conflict lifts Treasury yields
Mortgage applications fell 10.5% last week as the average 30-year fixed rate rose to 6.38% and the 10-year Treasury yield surged.
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Mortgage applications fell 10.5% last week as the average 30-year fixed rate rose to 6.38% and the 10-year Treasury yield surged.
Retail gas jumped about $1 in a month to roughly $3.98 a gallon, and consumers lifted 1-year inflation expectations to 3.8%.
As oil stays near $112, Washington faces $10T in debt refinancing and a possible $200B war request, with higher yields feeding into mortgages and stocks.
Freddie Mac’s average 30-year fixed rate rose to 6.38% for a fourth straight week, and a $450,000 buyer pays about $1,120 more per year than a month ago.
Higher gas prices and rising borrowing costs pushed U.S. consumer sentiment to 53.3 in March, with the steepest slide among middle- and higher-income households.
Weak demand at recent Treasury auctions pushed yields higher as investors weigh oil-driven inflation and rising U.S. borrowing costs amid the Iran conflict.
Average gas prices hit $3.98 a gallon as the Iran conflict disrupts crude and LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
The OECD now sees U.S. inflation at 4.2% in 2026, far above the Fed’s 2.7% view, as the Iran war energy shock ripples through shipping and supply chains.
Wood Mackenzie estimates about 9M barrels a day of Gulf output now sits shut in, while Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned of “an energy shock of some size and duration”.
S&P Global’s flash composite PMI hit 50.5 in March, with weaker hiring and cooling new orders complicating ECB rate-cut plans as inflation risks rise.
Gold fell as much as 2% Tuesday and logged its worst weekly drop since 2011 last week, as markets scaled back expectations for aggressive Fed rate cuts.
The BOJ plans a new price indicator by summer to filter out subsidy effects, as officials weigh imported inflation risks from oil and the yen against a softer headline CPI.