Kalshi prices 14.2% odds of 2.6% to 3.0% GDP growth in 2026
Bessent said U.S. GDP can return to 3% this year, but first-quarter growth was 1.6% after 0.5% in the prior quarter.
1 min read
Economy
Macro indicators, policy shifts, and economic forces shaping growth and inflation.
Bessent Says U.S. GDP Can Return to 3% Growth This Year
Bessent said U.S. growth could return to 3% this year after GDP rose 1.6% in the first quarter following 0.5% growth in the fourth quarter of 2025.
1 min read
Bessent Says U.S. GDP Can Return to 3% Growth This Year
Kalshi traders see only a 14.2% chance U.S. GDP lands between 2.6% and 3.0% this year, with higher odds on a 2.1% to 2.5% outcome.
3 min read
Venezuela plans $240 billion debt restructuring after Maduro’s fall
Venezuela is preparing a restructuring for about $240 billion of debt, which would be the largest sovereign workout in history.
3 min read
16,400 UK firms stop exporting to the EU as Brexit trade frictions linger
Studies cited by the BBC estimate the UK economy is 3% to 8% smaller than it would have been without Brexit, with investment 12% to 13% lower.
3 min read
Factory employment falls to 47.0 as new orders reach a more than four-year high
S&P Global’s factory employment gauge fell to 47.0, the weakest since May 2020 and a six-year low, even as new orders reached a more than four-year high.
3 min read
Manufacturing employment falls to 47.0 as S&P Global survey shows factory growth
The June flash manufacturing PMI rose to 55.7, its strongest reading since May 2022, even as employment fell to 47.0.
3 min read
U.S. factory PMI rises to 55.7 as manufacturers rebuild inventories
Factory employment gauge fell to 47.0, the weakest since May 2020, as manufacturers cut payrolls at a pace last seen in 2009 excluding COVID.
1 min read
Regional Winners Emerge as Globalization Gives Way to Fragmented Supply Chains
Nvidia has shifted from selling chips to selling AI factories, using full-stack hardware, networking, and CUDA to capture more of each data center buildout.
36 min read
Trade Policy and Resilience Push Companies Toward Regional Supply Chains and New Winners
Nvidia has shifted from chip seller to AI infrastructure provider, bundling compute, networking, and software into rack-scale systems with software-like margins.
36 min read
Fragmented Supply Chains Favor Regions With Energy, Grid, and Mineral Capacity
The old abundance regime is over as capital starvation, longer mine lead times, and weaker supply elasticity turn commodities into a hard-constraint market.
35 min read
Ground beef prices rise 20% as U.S. cattle herd falls to smallest since 1951
The U.S. beef cow herd is the smallest since 1951, leaving ranchers unable to rebuild supply quickly after drought-led culling.
1 min read