The market’s biggest swing factor is back where it started, with the Strait of Hormuz still unresolved and crude jumping again. Brent pushed back above $99 a barrel on Thursday and US crude briefly topped $102, after Wednesday’s relief rally faded on doubts that tankers will move freely through the waterway. Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. chief Sultan Al Jaber said the strait was “not open,” while President Donald Trump warned Iran to stop imposing any fees on ships using it.
That leaves investors stuck between two very different readings of the ceasefire. On one side, there are early signs of transits resuming, with MarineTraffic saying a Greek-owned bulk carrier and a Liberia-flagged vessel passed through; on the other, Tehran is still talking about transit fees, Israel is still striking in Lebanon, and traders are treating the truce as fragile. The result has been a round trip for energy: Brent fell 13.29 percent on Wednesday, then rebounded more than 4 percent on Thursday, while UK and European gas futures also turned higher again.
The stakes are wider than the oil screen. Dow Jones futures were little changed overnight as traders waited for Friday’s US consumer-price report and for US-Iran talks, with stocks having already whipsawed from a 2.85 percent surge in the Dow on Wednesday to a smaller follow-through gain on Thursday. A prolonged shutdown of Hormuz would keep energy prices elevated, pressure inflation readings, and complicate the case for a cleaner equity rebound, especially in Europe and Asia, which are more exposed to Middle East supply.
Elsewhere in commodities, Reuters says the Iran shock is not the only reason metals traders are uneasy. China’s copper import slump shows Beijing is leaning less on foreign supply, with February refined-copper imports at their lowest since 2011 and domestic inventories still heavy after the Lunar New Year build. That makes the copper market less responsive to a simple risk-on bounce, and it gives Chinese buyers more room to resist higher prices if global growth jitters keep fading in and out.
