Trump CFTC sues three states over Kalshi and Polymarket oversight
Trump administration and the CFTC sued Illinois, Connecticut and Arizona to block state oversight of Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets.
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Iran war: Markets follow barrels, not President Trump ceasefire talk
Crude jumped more than 11% after Trump said the conflict is “nearly complete,” and analysts warned that could send US gas above $4 a gallon.
Pakistan returns $3.5 billion to UAE under Abu Dhabi repayment demand
Pakistan will repay $3.5B to the UAE by month end, a senior official told Dawn, calling the move worth it to uphold “national dignity.” US payrolls rose 178,000 in March.
Iran-Oman Hormuz protocol calms stocks after early selloff
Markets swung as traders weighed Iran war risks and shipping signals in the Strait of Hormuz, with oil holding above $110 a barrel.
FAO food-price index rises on higher energy and freight costs
FAO’s food index averaged 128.5 in March, up 2.4%, as higher energy and "freight costs" pushed vegetable oil up 5% and sugar up 7%.
Wall Street prices the Iran war headline by headline, NYT says
Jeff Sommer says the range of outcomes stays "staggeringly broad" as Wall Street prices the Iran war headline by headline amid Trump signals on escalation and talks.
March jobs report pushes Fed rate cuts out on 178,000 payroll gain
Economists called it “too early” to show the Iran war’s oil shock, with crude up more than 50% since the conflict began.
Trump administration sues Illinois over prediction-market oversight
The Trump administration and the CFTC sued Illinois, Connecticut and Arizona to block state gambling oversight of prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket.
Economy Watch
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Mortgage rates jump to 6.38% as Iran conflict lifts Treasury yields
Mortgage applications fell 10.5% last week as the average 30-year fixed rate rose to 6.38% and the 10-year Treasury yield surged.
Consumer sentiment drops to 53.3 as gas prices surge
Retail gas jumped about $1 in a month to roughly $3.98 a gallon, and consumers lifted 1-year inflation expectations to 3.8%.
Treasury auctions show weak demand as Iran war lifts yields
As oil stays near $112, Washington faces $10T in debt refinancing and a possible $200B war request, with higher yields feeding into mortgages and stocks.