China’s 2026 Playbook Makes Export Controls a Market Catalyst
Commerce Ministry scrutiny, highlighted by Meta’s Manus review, raises execution risk and discounts for cross-border tech M&A.
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Jobs Cool, CPI Steady, March Cut Back in Focus
Cooling hiring and tariff uncertainty meet steady 2.7% CPI, fueling risk rally and March-cut hopes.
Tariffs Mute Inflation but Weaken Hiring as Uncertainty Lingers
With unemployment at 4.4% and manufacturing down 70,000 jobs since April, a Supreme Court ruling may reset sentiment.
2026 Risk Rally Leans on 2.7% CPI and Fed Cuts
With S&P 500 near 6,966, optimism hinges on softer inflation, capex incentives, and stable hiring.
Jobs Slowdown Puts March Fed Rate Cut Back in Play
December job gains fell to 50,000, fueling spring cut hopes, but wage growth risks sticky inflation.
Jobs Report Looms as Mortgage Rates Hover Near Lows
Markets watch Friday jobs volatility, steady-lowish mortgage rates, and China’s CPI rise amid PPI deflation.
China CPI Hits Three-Year High as PPI Deflation Persists
December CPI rose 0.8% on seasonal food shifts, while PPI fell 1.9%, highlighting weak demand.
Mixed Labor Signals Set Up Key Test in Jobs Report
ADP’s 41,000 December gain and lower JOLTS openings contrast with rising job-loss fears before Jan. 9.
Mortgage Rates Edge Up but Hold Near Late-2024 Lows
Freddie Mac’s 30-year rate ticked to 6.16% as jobless claims lifted yields ahead of Friday jobs data.
ADP Rebound, K-Shaped Growth Keep Fed On Edge
Jobs data and sticky wages collide with K-shaped growth, tariff uncertainty, and Venezuela’s oversupplied oil push.
Trump’s Venezuela Oil Push Runs Into Oversupply and High Costs
With crude near $60 and breakevens around $80, heavy sour barrels need stability and incentives.
Forecasters See K-Shaped Growth as Policy Drives Early 2026
Analysts expect expansion, with fiscal tailwinds masking rate- and price-driven strain on lower-income households.