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Mortgage rates finally cracked lower after more than a month of drift, but the move was small enough that many borrowers will barely notice it. The average 30-year fixed rate slipped to 6.37 percent through Wednesday from 6.46 percent a week earlier, while one lender survey showed the top-tier 30-year quote just 0.02 percent lower than the day before.
The trigger was not a housing-specific development but a geopolitical one. War-related headlines, especially news around Iran and a ceasefire, eased fears that oil prices would feed another inflation wave, and that helped bond yields move down. Mortgage rates still track the 10-year Treasury closely, so when yields dipped below 4.3 percent, home financing got a modest reprieve.
That reprieve may not last. Yahoo Finance reported that Treasury yields and oil prices were already ticking higher by midday Thursday as doubts grew about the agreement and a sticky February inflation reading kept pressure on rates. Zillow economist Kara Ng said the recent geopolitical shift had brought only a slight reprieve, and that leaves would-be buyers in the same awkward spot: better pricing than a week ago, but still far above February’s lows.
For the spring housing market, that means affordability gets a small break, not a reset. The average 30-year purchase rate sits at 6.10 percent in Zillow’s latest data, and refinance rates are only marginally different, so borrowers shopping now are still facing a market that is sensitive to every twist in oil, inflation, and Treasury trading.