US employers were expected to add 65,000 jobs in April, about one-third of March’s 178,000 gain. That would leave hiring looking steadier than February’s drop and January’s stronger pace, but still far below the swings seen earlier in 2026.
Three forces are reshaping the labor market at once. The population is aging, immigration has fallen sharply, and companies are folding in artificial intelligence. Nicole Bachaud of ZipRecruiter said the labor market is “absolutely transforming” and will not look the same as pre-2020 trends.
Economists are also leaning on slower benchmarks. Joe Brusuelas of RSM US said he now looks at a three-month average, not any one month, after January through March averaged 68,333 jobs. Gregory Daco of EY-Parthenon said April could still be above the level needed to keep unemployment steady, with the jobless rate expected to edge down to 4.2% from 4.3%.
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ birth-death model is one reason monthly payroll readings have been so jumpy.
- Weekly initial jobless claims were about 200,000 last week, up from 190,000 the week before and still near pre-pandemic levels.
- Tech companies announced 33,361 cuts in April, about 40% of all announced layoffs, and Challenger, Gray & Christmas said AI led job-cut reasons for the second month in a row.
The latest data point to a labor market that is still hiring, but barely. Job openings fell for a second straight month, hiring in the JOLTS report jumped back after a weak February, and wage gains have slowed. April’s payroll number lands alongside those signs on May 8.
