After a year of tariff-driven uncertainty, Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan says US trade policy is beginning to look more predictable, with tariff rates clustering near a stable range. Speaking on CBS’ Face the Nation, Moynihan argued the trade push is moving toward “de-escalation, not escalation,” according to tariffs settling around 15%.
The key shift is clarity. Moynihan said businesses were “shocked” in April when tariff plans were less understood, and that uncertainty disrupted planning and purchasing decisions. Now, as negotiations progress, Bank of America’s internal outlook sees a broad tariff floor: a **10%** baseline has effectively gravitated toward **about 15%** for many countries, with higher rates reserved for those that do not commit to buying US goods or lowering non-tariff barriers.
Two carve-outs matter for 2026. First, Moynihan called China “a different question,” citing national security concerns spanning rare earths, magnets, batteries, and AI supply chains. Second, he flagged North American trade as its own track because the USMCA review is due next year. Bloomberg similarly summarized Moynihan’s view that the administration expects average 15% tariffs with selective escalation where negotiations stall.
Why it matters. If tariffs settle into a narrower band, corporate margins and pricing strategies become easier to model, especially for small and mid-sized firms that struggled with stop-start rule changes. The flip side is that a higher “floor” can still be inflationary at the margin, and the remaining exceptions, China tech inputs and USMCA, are precisely where supply chains are most sensitive.
Position for a world where the tariff rate is less of a daily headline but more of a steady tax on cross-border goods. The companies that win are the ones that can either pass through a **15%** cost layer, re-source inputs, or gain share as weaker competitors freeze investment.
