Canada is attempting a high-wire reset with China as U.S. trade uncertainty rises. Prime Minister Mark Carney arrived in Beijing on Wednesday for a three-day visit aimed at repairing relations and easing retaliatory tariffs that have squeezed key Canadian exporters, per three-day visit. It’s the first visit to China by a Canadian prime minister since 2017, a sign Ottawa sees economic urgency overriding years of diplomatic freeze.
The immediate catalyst is leverage. Chinese customs data released ahead of the trip showed China’s imports from Canada fell 10.4% in 2025 to $41.7 billion, down from $46.6 billion in 2024, per imports slump. That decline lands as Carney tries to diversify markets after Trump-era tariffs and sovereignty rhetoric have darkened Canada’s U.S. outlook, per U.S. outlook darkens.
What’s on the table is politically loaded: agriculture access versus electric vehicle policy. The rift widened in 2024 when Canada imposed 100% tariffs on Chinese-made EVs, and farmers have been hit by Chinese counter-tariffs on products including canola. Canadian industry groups want relief but disagree on tradeoffs. Farmers are pressing for certainty that China returns to the canola market, while automakers warn against any concessions on Chinese EV access, per tariff standoff.
How this could evolve: negotiations may yield partial, sector-by-sector easing rather than a grand bargain. The risk is Canada gets squeezed between China’s demands and U.S. security and industrial policy expectations. That matters because Canada faces a mandatory Canada–U.S.–Mexico Agreement review in July, increasing the cost of any move that looks like opening North America to Chinese EVs, per July review.
What readers should do: if you’re exposed to Canadian agriculture, autos, or cross-border manufacturing, plan for a messy, incremental thaw rather than a clean reset. The visit is a signal that trade policy is becoming more transactional, and supply chains should be positioned for sudden tariff swings.
