China ended 2025 with a record external surplus even as its goods trade with the US weakened sharply. Beijing reported a record $1.18T surplus for 2025, underscoring how exporters rerouted sales after a year of shifting US tariffs. The headline contrast is stark: China’s December exports to the US fell 30% to $34.2B, yet overall exports still rose.
How did that happen. China diversified buyers and leaned harder into nearby supply chains. In December, exports to the EU and ASEAN rose 11.6% and 11.1%, as shipments to Vietnam jumped 20.5% and Thailand 20.7%, according to customs data. Over the full year, exports to Vietnam rose 22.4% to $198.1B, while exports to the US totaled $420B, down 20% from 2024.
The catalyst was US tariff escalation and de escalation across 2025, which pushed Chinese manufacturers to find new end markets and, in some cases, reconfigure routes. Yahoo Finance summarized that the US tariff path moved from an added 34% levy in April, briefly spiking to a 104% total duty, then down to a truce level before the average rate settled near 47% after an October deal. Meanwhile, China’s ports show the logistics machine stayed busy. Shanghai handled 55.1M TEUs in 2025, up 6.9%, while Ningbo Zhoushan topped 43M TEUs, up 9.4%, per port throughput figures.
For investors and operators, the near term impact is a two sided signal: US import exposure to China is cooling, but global competition from Chinese exports is intensifying. Expect more scrutiny of transshipment and more trade defenses across markets. Position around supply chain rerouting risk, not just US China headline tariffs.
