China’s leadership is trying to thread a narrow needle: maintain growth while reducing criticism that the economy is too reliant on exports and manufacturing. A senior official, Han Wenxiu, said China will “expand both exports and imports” in 2026, while also encouraging service exports and pushing digital and green trade, according to remarks reported by SCMP.
The timing matters. China’s latest activity data shows domestic demand is still struggling. When retail sales are rising only 1.3% and investment is contracting, policymakers have a strong incentive to lean on external demand. But that approach also invites pushback from trade partners. Reuters’ CEWC coverage underscored that leaders themselves now describe the mismatch as “prominent”. The same readout suggested Beijing intends to support both consumption and investment, a combination economists argue can perpetuate debt-funded capacity and reinforce export dependence, per the conference summary.
The “how” is likely a mix of targeted consumption measures and state-directed credit and fiscal tools. Reuters reported liquidity support is on the agenda, including potential reserve-requirement ratio cuts and interest-rate reductions, though analysts expect incremental moves. Meanwhile, officials are also signaling tourism and income policies to stimulate spending, consistent with IMF calls for stronger social protection and property-sector support cited in the same SCMP report.
Immediate impact: trade rhetoric may reassure exporters and local governments dependent on manufacturing activity, but it also raises the probability of renewed frictions with the U.S. and Europe if surpluses remain outsized. What to watch is whether Beijing’s 2026 plan includes concrete household-support steps that reduce the need to “export” growth. Treat upcoming policy meetings and March target-setting as the moment when slogans either become budgets or stay aspirations.
