The vessel NANDA DEVI is seen in open water under a partly cloudy sky. Its presence highlights the physical dimension of global energy transport.
Source: TradeWinds
Oil traders are trying to price two different clocks at once: the political countdown to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and the much slower physical reset of the energy system after the fighting. Crude futures edged lower as markets watched President Trump’s deadline, with Brent near $111.78 a barrel. But the more uncomfortable read for buyers is that even a ceasefire would not quickly fix supply chains, shipping routes, refinery runs, or damaged gas infrastructure.
That is the gap investors are now wrestling with. An analysis cited by Maeil Business News said the global energy market may need at least four months to normalize even if Iran reopens the waterway immediately. The report said Gulf crude output has fallen to about 40 percent of prewar levels, Asian refineries are short roughly 3 million barrels a day of throughput, and war-risk insurance has surged as high as 10 percent of a ship’s value. LNG looks even messier: the report said damage at Qatar’s Ras Laffan complex could keep part of the system impaired for weeks, with full recovery stretching far longer.
Wall Street is starting to treat the disruption as more than a short-lived panic premium. Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 Brent forecast to $85 from $77 and said Brent could average $110 in March and April. In its harsher scenario, the bank said prices could hit $135 a barrel if flows stay severely constrained and production losses persist. Barclays, quoted by the Journal, warned that attacks on energy assets could create compounding damage to regional supply.
For Asian economies, the danger is not just expensive fuel but a broader squeeze on refining margins, shipping costs, and industrial input prices. For governments, the question is whether emergency stock releases or diplomacy can outrun the logistical backlog. For markets, every headline about military escalation will keep colliding with a harder fact: even if the Strait reopens, the tankers, terminals, and processing plants do not snap back on command.
