Canada is heading into USMCA talks from a weaker negotiating perch, with Prime Minister Mark Carney and President Donald Trump’s trade team openly at odds over who will blink first. Ottawa says it will not pre-emptively hand over concessions, while US trade representative Jamieson Greer told Congress the two sides remain fundamentally misaligned, a tone that suggests the real fight is only beginning.
The deadline is the 1 July USMCA review, and both countries sound prepared for a drawn-out process rather than a quick fix. Canada’s trade minister, Dominic LeBlanc, said dairy is off the table, even as he argued Ottawa has solutions to most of Washington’s complaints and is willing to discuss them as part of a larger package. The US has been pressing a familiar list, including dairy quotas and liquor, and has already won one concession after Canada dropped a planned tax on big US technology firms last year.
The practical stakes are broad. If the two sides cannot bridge their differences before the review, the pact could drift into annual check-ins until its 2036 expiry, keeping exporters and manufacturers in a cloud of uncertainty. For now, Greer says the US goal is to preserve market access, but that leaves plenty unresolved about what Canada must give up, and whether Washington is looking for a reset or just more leverage.
