In holiday-thinned trading in the U.S. and Asia, risk assets stayed buoyant while precious metals dominated the tape. According to record U.S. closes, the Dow finished at 48,731.16 (up 0.6%) and the S&P 500 ended at 6,932.05 (up 0.3%) ahead of the Christmas break. In Asia, a year-end bid carried regional benchmarks higher, with Reuters noting MSCI’s broad Asia-Pacific index up about 0.4% on Friday and roughly 25% year to date amid light liquidity.
Precious metals, not equities, provided the real momentum. Reuters reported spot gold at about $4,503/oz and silver up roughly 158% year to date as investors sought hedges against policy uncertainty and debt concerns. Separately, CNBC flagged spot silver hitting an all-time high of $74.89/oz (up more than 4% on Friday) as risk sentiment stayed jittery around an AI-bubble narrative and unclear Fed timing.
What’s driving the divergence is a familiar mix of catalysts. Investors are balancing:
- Expectations for at least two Fed cuts in 2026, but likely not before mid-year, per Fed pricing commentary.
- Thin holiday liquidity, which tends to amplify moves and trend-following behavior.
- Demand for inflation and currency-debasement hedges, a key support behind the metal rally.
For investors, the setup is less about chasing a late-December melt-up and more about watching whether leadership broadens beyond tech and defensive hedges. If equities keep printing records while metals keep screaming higher, that’s a sign positioning is conflicted, not confident, and it can flip quickly when January volume returns.
