💸 Islands and Integrity

The NFL is escalating its fight with sports prediction markets, urging federal lawmakers to clamp down on sports-related event contracts that can be traded nationwide. In written testimony to the House Committee on Agriculture, NFL EVP Jeff Miller argued that these markets sidestep state betting rules and lack the safeguards regulators impose on sportsbooks.

The core friction is jurisdictional and it is moving quickly. Prediction markets operate in all 50 states, while sports betting is legal in 39 states plus D.C., creating a de facto workaround in places that have not legalized wagering, as reported by sports business coverage. The NFL says that gap matters because state regulators and leagues can influence what bets are allowed and at what limits, while prediction markets fall under federal oversight via the CFTC.

The league’s catalyst is less about fans finding another way to bet and more about integrity, scale, and “novel” contracts that are hard to police. Miller warned that prediction-market activity could exceed sportsbook wagering and create “substantially greater risks to contest integrity,” noting examples like contracts tied to whether terms such as “concussion protocol” get mentioned on broadcasts, cited in coverage of the testimony.

Next steps likely run through the CFTC and Congress, with pressure from leagues and state gaming regulators colliding with platforms that argue they are regulated markets, not gambling. The takeaway is that sports prediction markets are headed for a higher-stakes federal rules fight, and the outcome could reshape how “event contracts” are allowed to touch sports.

Hawaiʻi’s economic outlook has turned notably gloomier heading into 2026, with forecasters warning that the state is sliding into a mild recession as tourism cools and job losses build. The University of Hawaiʻi Economic Research Organization (UHERO) laid out the call in its Q4 2025 forecast, pointing to a downturn in visitor activity and labor market weakening as the main drivers.

The near-term mechanics are straightforward: less visitor demand hits hotel occupancy, restaurants, transportation, and retail, then feeds into employment and income. UHERO also expects inflation pressure to reaccelerate as tariffs flow through to consumer prices, a risk flagged in the local report summarizing the forecast. That mix is tough for households because a softer job market can arrive at the same time everyday costs rise.

Not all sectors are rolling over. UHERO highlights construction as a consistent bright spot, supported by major federal contracts and ongoing housing and infrastructure needs, according to the forecast release. Still, the organization’s bottom line is that construction can cushion the downturn but cannot fully offset weakness tied to tourism and federal spending.

What happens next hinges on two external variables UHERO explicitly calls out. Trade policy and federal decisions affecting staffing and spending could determine whether the “mild” recession stays mild and how quickly 2026 improves. The takeaway is that Hawaiʻi’s economy looks set for a soft patch led by tourism and jobs, with construction acting as a stabilizer rather than a cure.

Maui’s tourism story in 2025 has shifted from rebound to plateau. Local economists say the island’s recovery started strong early this year, then flattened as international arrivals weakened and a 43-day government shutdown dented travel demand and household spending statewide.

The numbers show both progress and frustration. From January to October, Maui logged 2.07 million visitor arrivals, up 7.6% from 1.93 million over the same period in 2024, according to visitor statistics. Yet the more revealing metric, the average daily visitor census, was 52,389 year-to-date, still below 64,634 in the same period of 2022, per the reporting on the UHERO briefing in the Maui update.

Maui is also moving differently than other islands because it is still normalizing after the August 2023 Lahaina and Kula wildfires. That dynamic has helped Maui “outperform” places like Oʻahu and the Big Island during the broader slowdown, even as key feeder markets soften and Canada is described as “down sharply,” as quoted in the economists’ remarks. Discounted hotel rates in October, about 8% lower than a year earlier, also supported occupancy by roughly 20 percentage points, according to UHERO’s report cited in the same article.

Next steps are split between rebuilding and demand. Construction tied to wildfire recovery is tangible, with 300 homes under construction, but tourism’s trajectory will depend on flights, mainland sentiment, and whether the broader Hawaiʻi forecast slips further into recession. The takeaway is that Maui’s recovery is real but increasingly capped by external headwinds, making 2026 a test of resilience rather than a clean rebound.

• Congressional and CFTC follow-through on NFL testimony. Any signal of prohibition vs permitting frameworks moves fast.
• Updates to UHERO’s mild recession baseline. Watch for revisions tied to tourism and federal employment.
• Next monthly visitor statistics. Arrivals matter, but average daily census is the tighter demand signal.
• Maui rebuild throughput. The burn-zone pipeline is a real offset to tourism softness if it keeps accelerating.
• Labor cost pressure from Hawaiʻi’s minimum wage step-up. Watch hiring at entry-level service businesses.