The NFL is escalating its pushback against sports prediction markets, arguing they are expanding faster than the guardrails meant to protect game integrity. In written testimony to Congress, the league told the House Committee on Agriculture it is “particularly troubled” that sports-related futures contracts are being offered nationwide, including in states where traditional sports betting remains illegal.
The dispute is fundamentally about jurisdiction and enforcement. Prediction markets operate under federal oversight of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, while sportsbooks are primarily regulated state-by-state. The NFL’s Jeff Miller emphasized the mismatch: prediction markets currently operate in all 50 states, while legal sportsbooks exist in only 39 states plus Washington, D.C. The league argues that state regulators and legislatures set acceptable bet types and limits, and that those guardrails do not exist in the same way for event contracts.
The immediate catalyst is the rapid growth and the expansion of contracts beyond standard game outcomes. ESPN reported Miller cited markets that accepted trades on whether phrases such as “concussion protocol” or “roughing the passer” would be mentioned during broadcasts, which the NFL says raises integrity concerns. The league also warned prediction-market volumes could become larger than sportsbook wagering, amplifying incentives for manipulation.
Industry players are pushing back. A prediction markets coalition told ESPN the analogy is closer to regulated financial markets than gambling and argued CFTC anti-manipulation rules already apply. Meanwhile, the commercial stakes are rising: traditional sportsbook operators, including some that partner with the NFL ecosystem, have signaled interest in launching prediction markets. The next step is likely more formal CFTC and congressional scrutiny, plus continued state-level legal battles. If you operate in media, sports, or fintech, assume compliance rules, permitted contract types, and distribution could change quickly in 2026.
