Nigeria is pitching 2025 as a turning point for investor confidence, with government data pointing to a sharp pickup in foreign inflows and non-oil exports. The Federal Ministry of Industry, Trade and Investment said combined foreign portfolio investment (FPI) and foreign direct investment (FDI) reached nearly $14bn in the first nine months of 2025, helped by reforms including FX liberalisation and subsidy removal, according to combined inflows data.
On the trade side, officials said non-oil exports rose 21% to $12.8bn in the first half of 2025, beating an internal $6.5bn target and contributing to a roughly N12tn surplus. A key “how” is Special Economic Zones (SEZs). They reportedly generated over $500m in export revenues and created 20,000 direct jobs, per SEZ export revenues.
- What’s driving it: trade facilitation, logistics reforms, and more value addition in agriculture and light manufacturing.
- What’s still fragile: heavy reliance on portfolio flows versus durable FDI, plus the difficulty of scaling infrastructure and port efficiency fast.
Foreign capital appears increasingly UK-linked, with one government summary citing the UK as about 65% of recent inflows and highlighting a combined $48m in two headline deals. That concentration can be helpful for momentum. It can also amplify sensitivity to UK risk appetite and due-diligence cycles.
Next steps to watch are execution metrics: how quickly memoranda convert into operating projects, whether SEZ job creation continues, and whether export growth broadens beyond a few commodity winners. Readers should treat the inflow surge as a constructive signal, but one that still depends on policy consistency and on-the-ground delivery.
