U.S. equities pushed to fresh highs in the holiday-shortened Dec. 24 session, with the S&P 500 setting a new record as big tech outperformed. The backdrop was a familiar late-2025 mix. Growth data looks hot, but hiring momentum looks tired, leaving investors to game out how quickly the Federal Reserve can keep easing in 2026.
Rates and “macro” traders focused less on new layoffs and more on what slower hiring implies for consumer demand next quarter. According to weekly claims data, initial jobless claims fell to 214,000 for the week ended Dec. 20, below expectations. But continued claims, a proxy for how quickly people are finding jobs, rose to 1.923 million, reinforcing the “no hire, no fire” narrative that can keep growth from collapsing while still cooling wage pressure.
Meanwhile, housing finance stayed pinned to the long end of the curve. Freddie Mac’s weekly survey shows the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate eased to 6.18%, down from 6.21% the prior week, keeping borrowing costs near the narrow band that’s held for about two months, per Freddie Mac data. The 10-year Treasury yield, which mortgage rates tend to track, was around 4.15% midday, limiting the upside for a bigger housing rebound.
Positioning into year-end now hinges on whether “strong GDP” proves durable or gets revised down as labor cools. Keep risk exposure aligned to your time horizon. If you’re trading weeks not quarters, the next set of labor and inflation prints will matter more than today’s record close.
