Thursday's long-delayed report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed nonfarm payrolls rose by 119,000 in September, a surprise to the upside that ended a weeks-long data blackout. The BLS release of Nonfarm payrolls also included downward revisions to July and August and an unemployment rate that ticked up to 4.4%.
Who moved and why. Employers added jobs concentrated in health care, leisure and hospitality, and social assistance while transportation, federal government and professional services recorded losses, according to the household and establishment surveys. The report matters because it fills a hole left by the record government shutdown, but economists warned the snapshot is backward-looking and the revisions complicate interpretation.
Policy and politics. The mixed hiring picture leaves the Federal Reserve with ambiguous signals ahead of its December meeting, and it gives policymakers room to debate whether the labor market has softened enough to justify another cut. At the same time, affordability concerns and public frustration over prices are forcing the administration to float near-term relief measures, while abroad, Japan approved a 21.3 trillion yen stimulus package to prop up households and growth, pressuring the yen and global yields in Tokyo.
What to watch. Markets will parse upcoming inflation prints, the Fed's December deliberations and fresh employment releases for October and November, which the BLS plans to publish together next month. The combination of data noise from the shutdown and big fiscal moves abroad creates a higher-than-normal chance of market whipsawing in the weeks ahead.
