U.S. equities headed into the final trading day of 2025 on softer footing after a tech-led pullback. In thin year-end liquidity, the third straight losing session left the S&P 500 down 0.14% and the Nasdaq off 0.24% on Tuesday, while Dow futures later hovered near flat at about +10 points.
That wobble matters because the “Santa Claus” window often lifts risk assets, and a stall can amplify nerves about 2026 volatility. Traders also weighed Fed minutes that signaled inflation must cool for further cuts, with markets tilting toward a hold at the next meeting, at 84% odds.
Commodities were the other big story. After a brutal drop, silver bounced hard, while gold stabilized, underscoring how positioning and margin rules can overpower fundamentals in the short run. The whipsaw followed CME margin increases that helped trigger silver’s -8.7% one-day slide, later met by a sharp rebound. Meanwhile, Reuters flagged that spot gold had fallen 4.47% on Dec. 29 amid profit-taking and shifting geopolitics, with 10-year yields around 4.106%.
What happens next likely hinges on whether 2026 broadens beyond mega-cap tech or snaps back into an AI-only trade. For portfolios, treat the late-December chop as a stress test. Make sure risk sizing and liquidity assumptions still hold when markets thin out.
