Markets are taking their cues from a ceasefire that does not look especially ceased. President Donald Trump’s extension of the Iran truce lifted risk appetite across Asia, pushing Japan and South Korea to record highs even as Tehran rejected talks and seized ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Oil stayed hot, too, with U.S. crude and Brent both higher, a reminder that investors are cheering the pause while still paying up for the possibility it unravels.
The most striking move was in the big benchmarks. Japan’s Nikkei 225 and South Korea’s Kospi both hit all-time intraday highs, helped by tech strength and, in Seoul’s case, a stronger-than-expected first-quarter economic rebound. That kind of cross-current, geopolitical risk on one side and earnings plus economic resilience on the other, has let equities shrug off a lot of bad news. U.S. futures were softer in early trade, but that came after the Nasdaq hit a fresh high and chip-heavy names kept carrying the tape.
Wall Street is starting to worry about how far that can run. Bank of America’s derivatives strategists said the Nasdaq-100’s streak and the surge in semiconductors have taken parts of the market into more bubble-like territory, while the Kospi, Brent and the Bloomberg Commodity Index already show “extreme bubble-like dynamics.” That warning sits awkwardly beside the market’s current mood: traders are buying the rally and, at the same time, paying for protection against a geopolitical blowup.
- Brent crude remains around $20 below its late-March high, but still near levels that keep pressure on airlines, petrochemical users and any economy that imports a lot of fuel.
- South Korea’s Kospi is being pulled by AI-related chip demand, while Japan’s Nikkei is leaning on domestic tech leadership.
