Global markets entered the first full week of 2026 with a new catalyst layered on top of an already unusual backdrop. International equities beat the US in 2025, with MSCI ACWI ex-USA gaining 29.2% versus the S&P 500’s 16.39%. A key tailwind was currency. The US dollar index fell 9.4% in 2025, boosting dollar-based returns on foreign assets.
Now, geopolitical risk is back on traders’ screens after the US struck Venezuela and extracted President Nicolás Maduro to face US criminal charges. The immediate market question is how that changes energy and risk premiums. Investors are also trying to price the second-order effects: potential disruption to Venezuelan oil output, sanctions and legal uncertainty around control of infrastructure, and how other producers respond if prices spike.
Positioning is likely to be shaped less by last weekend’s headlines than by what follows next: clarity from Washington on governance, oil policy, and duration of involvement. The market’s sensitivity is heightened because the week is packed with catalysts that can move rates and equities at the same time. Economists expect the US December jobs report to show payrolls rising 55,000 after 64,000 in November, while unemployment is seen at 4.5% versus 4.6%, according to consensus estimates.
Use the Venezuela shock as a stress test. If oil stays contained and labor data softens, risk assets may keep levitating. If crude jolts higher while wages stay firm, 2026 could start with an uncomfortable mix of inflation anxiety and geopolitical volatility.
