Prediction markets are shedding their reputation as niche gambling hubs, evolving instead into a $240 billion industry defined by continuous retail participation. According to a new report from Bitget and Polymarket, these platforms are no longer just for betting on major elections; they have become real-time tools for tracking expectations on economics, politics, and culture.
Retail leads the surge
The growth is coming from high-frequency, smaller-scale trades rather than institutional whale bets. Over 82% of users traded less than $10,000 in the first quarter of 2026, signaling that the market is scaling through more daily actions per user. While crypto serves as the entry point for 40% of new activity, users are increasingly branching out into real-world event markets as they become more familiar with the platforms.
- Volume jump. Monthly trading volume on Polymarket hit $25.7 billion in March, up from just $1.2 billion in 2025.
- User base. Active wallets have more than tripled in the last six months, reaching 1.29 million wallets in the first quarter.
- Market projections. Industry estimates suggest total volume could reach $240 billion this year, with a long-term path toward $1 trillion.
Integration with news
Tracking trends. These markets are shifting from episodic spikes around specific events to continuous systems where prices reflect shifting probabilities in real time. This behavior has led to prediction data appearing alongside traditional financial metrics as a way to gauge macroeconomic and cultural trends. Bitget Wallet and other platforms are now acting as primary discovery points for users to interact with these markets as news breaks.
The $240 billion volume target remains the industry benchmark for the remainder of 2026.