S&P 500 Records, Cooling Hiring, Mortgage Rates Ease

U.S. equities pushed to fresh highs in the holiday-shortened Dec. 24 session, with the S&P 500 setting a new record as big tech outperformed. The backdrop was a familiar late-2025 mix. Growth data looks hot, but hiring momentum looks tired, leaving investors to game out how quickly the Federal Reserve can keep easing in 2026.

Rates and “macro” traders focused less on new layoffs and more on what slower hiring implies for consumer demand next quarter. According to weekly claims data, initial jobless claims fell to 214,000 for the week ended Dec. 20, below expectations. But continued claims, a proxy for how quickly people are finding jobs, rose to 1.923 million, reinforcing the “no hire, no fire” narrative that can keep growth from collapsing while still cooling wage pressure.

Meanwhile, housing finance stayed pinned to the long end of the curve. Freddie Mac’s weekly survey shows the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate eased to 6.18%, down from 6.21% the prior week, keeping borrowing costs near the narrow band that’s held for about two months, per Freddie Mac data. The 10-year Treasury yield, which mortgage rates tend to track, was around 4.15% midday, limiting the upside for a bigger housing rebound.

Positioning into year-end now hinges on whether “strong GDP” proves durable or gets revised down as labor cools. Keep risk exposure aligned to your time horizon. If you’re trading weeks not quarters, the next set of labor and inflation prints will matter more than today’s record close.

U.S. mortgage rates inched lower into the Christmas week, but the move was more a “steadying” than a true breakthrough. Freddie Mac’s weekly survey shows the average 30-year fixed rate fell to 6.18% from 6.21%, while the 15-year rose to 5.50% from 5.47%, according to Freddie Mac’s update. That keeps borrowers in the same tight range seen since late October, helpful at the margin but still historically expensive for first-time buyers.

The “why” is mostly the bond market, not the Fed’s policy rate. Mortgage rates tend to follow the 10-year Treasury, which hovered around 4.14% to 4.16% this week as investors weighed conflicting signals: a hotter growth print and cooler inflation and labor data. Realtor.com noted rates reflected an up-and-down bond market, with holiday-thinned trading amplifying small swings.

What’s changed for buyers is supply and negotiating leverage, not the sticker rate. Realtor.com says inventory is higher than last year in most markets, and more sellers are cutting asking prices as homes sit longer. That’s a sharp turn from the ultra-tight pandemic era, even if it hasn’t produced meaningful nationwide price declines yet.

Still, affordability remains the gating factor. Stronger GDP hasn’t translated into broad comfort about job security, and the labor market is increasingly described as “no hire, no fire.” If you’re shopping for a home, focus on what you can control: payment math, purchase price negotiation, and the option to refinance later if rates drift closer to 6%. Waiting for a magical rate level can be costlier than buying the right home at the right price.

The Trump administration signaled a tactical pause in U.S.. China chip trade escalation by delaying new semiconductor import tariffs until mid-2027. In a Federal Register filing, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative said the tariff rate on Chinese semiconductor imports will be 0% for 18 months, with an increase slated for June 2027, per the tariff timeline.

Who’s affected is broader than chipmakers. Semiconductors sit inside everything from phones to cars, and tariff policy can ripple through supply chains, pricing, and corporate capex plans. The administration’s stated “why” is an unfair-trade probe that began about a year ago, but the “how” here matters: pushing the bite of tariffs out in time reduces near-term inflation risk while keeping bargaining power for future negotiations.

Immediate market impact looked muted in the holiday session, but the strategic impact is clearer. The delay reduces the odds of a sudden cost shock for U.S. importers in 2026 while leaving plenty of runway for:

• companies to re-route sourcing and inventory plans, and
• U.S. officials to calibrate the next move based on inflation and domestic chip capacity.

Next steps likely include further guidance on product scope and enforcement details, plus continued scrutiny of Chinese industrial policy. If you have exposure to hardware or industrial supply chains, treat the delay as time to stress-test 2027 cost scenarios rather than a clean “all clear.”

• Track continued claims after 1.923 million. Rising levels would reinforce slow hiring even if layoffs stay low.
• Watch Freddie Mac’s 30-year mortgage rate near 6.18%. A sustained break lower would meaningfully improve buyer purchasing power.
• Monitor the 10-year Treasury around 4.15%. Mortgages and equity multiples will follow its next decisive move.
• Keep an eye on the chip tariff timetable. The 18-month zero-rate window shifts cost risk into 2027 planning cycles.