Global power shifts, policy, and conflict risk feeding directly into markets.
President Trump launched Project Freedom to extract neutral civilian cargo ships currently trapped in the Strait of Hormuz by the U.S.-Iran conflict.
Markets no longer clear energy and minerals cleanly, because states now control the bottlenecks that set inflation, industrial capacity, and defense readiness.
The U.S. hit 13.2 million barrels per day of crude output in 2024, but it remains dependent on imports for 15 vital commodities.
China controls most refining of lithium, cobalt, graphite and rare earths, giving Beijing leverage over battery metals and hardware supply chains.
Reuters counted 26 companies that withdrew or cut guidance as the Iran war pushed up fuel bills, tightened supply chains and slowed deliveries.
Trump's ceasefire deadline and Iran's leverage over the Strait of Hormuz are driving oil prices higher as the IMF warns of a possible global recession.
Germany’s economy ministry cut its 2026 growth forecast to 0.5% as higher oil and gas prices lifted inflation expectations.
China controls more than 90% of refining capacity for graphite and rare earths, giving Beijing leverage over battery materials and modern hardware supply chains.
The White House warned staff not to use non-public information for prediction-market bets as scrutiny grows over geopolitical trading and possible leaks.
