Global power shifts, policy, and conflict risk feeding directly into markets.
BRICS+ now controls 35% of global GDP at purchasing power parity compared to 30% for the G7, creating a structural arbitrage window for non-aligned states to capture premiums from both blocs.
AI, electrification, and grid expansion need far more minerals than current systems can supply, locking in bottlenecks and a friend-shoring premium.
Energy and critical minerals have become instruments of state power, and the bottleneck sits in refining, not mining.
States now control energy and critical mineral chokepoints, so inflation, defense readiness, and AI buildout depend on refining and processing capacity, not just mines.
China’s refining dominance and dumped critical minerals have crushed ex-China project economics, freezing new supply just as grid and AI demand rise.
President Trump canceled a scheduled military strike on Iran following requests from regional leaders, according to a post on Truth Social.
The resource cold war has shifted power from markets to states as bottlenecks in energy and minerals drive inflation, industrial strategy, and defense planning.
President Donald Trump warned Iranian leadership to act quickly or face destruction, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
President Trump warned Iran to act quickly as a U.S. blockade of Iranian ports and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz continue to stall regional diplomacy.
A cluster of nine anonymous Polymarket accounts secured a 98% win rate and $2.4 million in profits betting on specific military events during the U.S.-Iran war.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose nearly 24 basis points to 4.6% this week as oil prices remained above $100 per barrel.
Markets no longer clear energy and critical minerals because states now control the refining chokepoints that set prices, supply, and industrial leverage.
