2026 Risk Rally Leans on 2.7% CPI and Fed Cuts
With S&P 500 near 6,966, optimism hinges on softer inflation, capex incentives, and stable hiring.
Coverage of market moves, trends, and key drivers across asset classes.
With S&P 500 near 6,966, optimism hinges on softer inflation, capex incentives, and stable hiring.
Freddie Mac’s 30-year rate ticked to 6.16% as jobless claims lifted yields ahead of Friday jobs data.
December added 41,000 private jobs after a revised November decline, while job-changer pay rose 6.6%.
Softer inflation supports equities, but rising Treasury yields and Venezuelan oil headlines keep policy risks elevated.
Chevron, Exxon, Halliburton and SLB rallied on reopening hopes, while crude prices stayed muted amid restart risks.
After a 2025 dollar-driven ex-US equity surge, traders stress-test rates and risk around Venezuela and jobs.
Holiday closures muted early gains, while Fed independence worries kept precious metals strong and oil stabilizing.
The S&P 500 ended 2025 up 16.39%, but investors enter 2026 with tighter upside and higher AI-driven expectations.
Thin year-end trading left equities lower, while CME margin hikes drove silver’s plunge and rebound.
Thin holiday liquidity magnified selling in AI megacaps and a sharp pullback in silver and gold.
U.S. indexes notched record closes, but gold and silver led amid hedging demand and Fed timing uncertainty.
Initial claims fell, but continued claims rose, shaping 2026 Fed easing bets and mortgage rates.