Thin Liquidity Starts 2026 With Metals Leading

Global markets opened 2026 with a soft but positive tone as liquidity stayed thin due to holiday closures in parts of Asia. Markets in Japan and China were shut, muting moves even as futures pointed higher in the U.S. and Europe.

In early cross-asset leadership, precious metals kept stealing the spotlight. Reuters cited spot gold at $4,351.70 an ounce and spot silver at $72.63, extending momentum from a standout 2025 run that was fueled by rate cuts, geopolitical hedging demand, and central-bank buying.

Equities were steadier than exuberant. U.S. futures were up modestly, with S&P 500 futures up 0.29% and Nasdaq futures up 0.36% in Reuters’ snapshot, while Europe’s opening bias was mixed. Investors also noticed oil attempting to stabilize after a rough year. Brent was around $61.00 and WTI near $57.57, per Reuters.

The catalyst driving early-year positioning is the same one that framed late 2025. The looming test of Fed independence and the U.S. rate path as President Trump prepares to name a replacement for Chair Jerome Powell. Reuters reported traders were pricing just a 15% chance of a rate cut this month, with roughly one cut expected by June. That rates uncertainty is helping explain why defensive hedges like gold are working even as equities try to grind higher.

Position for a market where upside is still possible, but leadership may rotate quickly. If rates expectations shift, metals, growth stocks, and the dollar can all reprice in a hurry.

U.S. mortgage borrowers are entering 2026 with slightly better headline rates, but not enough to reset affordability. Freddie Mac’s weekly survey showed the average 30-year fixed mortgage at 6.15%, down from 6.18% a week earlier and the lowest reading of 2025. That helps at the margin, especially for buyers who have been sitting out since rates hovered near 7% earlier in the year.

Refinancing is seeing similar, slightly higher levels. Fortune, citing Zillow data, put the average 30-year fixed refi rate at 6.23%, with 15-year refis around 5.51% as of Dec. 31. Those numbers matter because the “lock-in effect” still pins many homeowners to ultra-low pandemic-era mortgages, reducing listings and keeping prices firmer than buyers would like.

Affordability is the stubborn constraint. Investopedia summarized a Zillow analysis finding rates would need to fall more than 4 percentage points nationally to make a typical home affordable for a median-income family, assuming a 20% down payment and a payment under 30% of income. In other words, moving from roughly 6.18% to near 2% would be required for a broad affordability reset, which is not a base-case forecast.

Meanwhile, the broader macro backdrop is mixed for housing. Fox Business noted the 10-year Treasury yield around 4.14%, the anchor mortgage rates tend to track, while the labor market has softened. It also cited November job growth of 64,000 and unemployment at 4.6%, a combination that could eventually push yields lower but also makes lenders and buyers more cautious.

For readers, the practical move is to treat today’s rate dip as optionality, not a turning point. Run refinance math carefully against closing costs and watch whether supply, not just rates, improves in Q1.

• Track Fed independence risk as Trump prepares to announce Powell’s replacement. Markets can reprice quickly if credibility concerns rise.
• Watch whether holiday-thinned gains broaden once Asia reopens fully. Low liquidity can exaggerate early moves.
• Follow gold and silver after a historic 2025 as Reuters flagged spot gold near $4,351 and silver near $72. A break higher would signal persistent hedging demand.
• Monitor mortgage rates and housing activity after Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed hit 6.15%. Rate relief without listings growth may not move the market.
• Gauge affordability math: Zillow’s analysis suggests rates must fall more than 4 points for broad affordability. That sets expectations for what “better” really means.