Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing raised the ceiling on the chip boom, estimating the semiconductor market will reach $1.5 trillion by 2030, roughly double 2025 spending and above its prior view for just over $1 trillion.
AI data-center spending is the near-term fuel. U.S. hyperscalers entered the year planning to spend more than $700 billion on new data centers, and three of the four major hyperscalers lifted their 2026 capex budgets alongside first-quarter earnings. TSMC now expects 2026 revenue growth to exceed 30%, while keeping its longer-term outlook for 25% annualized revenue growth from 2024 through 2029.
Capacity gets expensive
TSMC is also pushing its own spending higher. The company told investors to expect 2026 capex near the high end of its $52 billion to $56 billion range, with significantly larger spending increases over the next three years tied to AI demand.
High-performance chips are the center of the forecast. TSMC expects that category to account for 55% of 2030 semiconductor spending, or $825 billion. The company is leaning on advanced manufacturing and packaging, including work to combine logic chips with high-bandwidth memory and optical interconnect, because memory availability and data-transfer latency remain bottlenecks in AI training and inference.
Nvidia snaps back
Nvidia’s stock joined the chip surge with a 14% four-session run, adding $591 billion in market value. That gain was larger than Oracle’s $557 billion intraday market cap on Monday, and put Nvidia on pace for its best four-session gain of 2026 after lagging the chip sector year to date.
Intel is the named rival in advanced packaging, with strong demand for EMIB, its technology for connecting multiple chiplets in a single package. TSMC’s answer is capacity: capex near the top of the $52 billion to $56 billion range this year, then bigger spending increases over the next three years.
