China’s Forex Reserves Rise Modestly Despite Record Trade Surplus
China’s foreign exchange reserves grew slowly, reflecting shifting capital flows and reduced US dollar inflows.
Macro indicators, policy shifts, and economic forces shaping growth and inflation.
China’s foreign exchange reserves grew slowly, reflecting shifting capital flows and reduced US dollar inflows.
China's export growth to emerging markets offsets declining US demand, highlighting its trade resilience.
ONS data showed November GDP up 0.3% after October’s drop, partly reversing one-off weakness from a Jaguar Land Rover cyberattack.
US-bound shipments fell sharply, but rising exports to EU and ASEAN kept China’s 2025 surplus at $1.18T.
Grocery, gas, and electricity costs rose as shutdown data quirks complicate readings, keeping the Fed cautious.
Beijing is prioritizing consumption via services and social coverage, but local funding strains may slow follow-through.
December job gains fell to 50,000, fueling spring cut hopes, but wage growth risks sticky inflation.
ADP’s 41,000 December gain and lower JOLTS openings contrast with rising job-loss fears before Jan. 9.
Analysts expect expansion, with fiscal tailwinds masking rate- and price-driven strain on lower-income households.
Research suggests actual tariff rates trail announced levels, muting price pass-through but worsening growth and unemployment risks.
Trump touted rapid production, but analysts see heavy-crude challenges, political risk, and $100 billion rebuilding needs.
RatingDog services PMI eased to 52.0, with weaker exports, falling prices, and continued job cuts.