Intel shares have surged 214.6% this year through mid-May, marking a dramatic comeback for a company that required a U.S. government bailout only one year ago. The rally represents a shift in the artificial intelligence trade as investors pivot from "training" chips made by Nvidia to "inference" semiconductors that power AI agent responses to user queries. In April alone, Intel shares jumped 114%, outperforming Nvidia’s year-to-date returns by more than eightfold.
AI moves emerging markets
The AI boom is driving record concentration in global markets, particularly in regions that house critical semiconductor manufacturing. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index gained 22.2% in 2026 through mid-May, significantly outperforming the S&P 500’s 8.8% return over the same period. This growth is largely concentrated in technical hubs:
- TSMC remains a central actor in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index as China continues to claim Taiwan as its territory.
- Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have propelled the South Korean Kospi Index into the ranks of top global performers.
- Nigeria and Ghana have also seen their primary stock indexes reach the top four globally, though their gains are driven by rising oil prices linked to the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran.
The intensity of the rally has prompted warnings of a speculative bubble. Goldman Sachs strategist Ben Snider noted that the AI-driven market rally is becoming ‘one big trade,’ increasing risk for investors as the S&P 500 reaches repeated record highs. Similarly, hedge fund manager Michael Burry warned that the current market environment mirrors the tech bubble of 2000.
Geopolitical stability in the Taiwan Strait remains the primary bottleneck for the semiconductor trade, mirroring the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz for global oil supplies.
