China’s trade data underscored a major shift in global goods flows. Beijing reported a record $1.19T trade surplus for 2025, the first time above $1T, as exports surged to new markets despite US tariffs, according to official figures cited by the BBC. The surplus reflects two forces at once. Strong external demand for Chinese products, and weak domestic demand that keeps imports subdued.
The bilateral US channel is clearly shrinking even as global totals hold up. China’s exports to the US fell 30% in December to $34.2B, and full-year shipments to the US were $420B, down 20% from 2024, per China customs data. Yet China’s exports to the EU and ASEAN rose 11.6% and 11.1% in December, showing how quickly exporters are redirecting volume when one market tightens.
The why and how will matter for 2026. CNN notes the 2025 surplus was up about 20% from the prior year, raising the odds of pushback as other economies worry about subsidized competition and “overcapacity” in sectors like EVs and batteries, per CNN’s trade analysis. Bloomberg adds a financial-market angle. A large share of export earnings is increasingly ending up with private actors and state lenders rather than staying parked at the central bank, which could amplify capital-flow swings if the yuan strengthens, per Bloomberg’s capital-flow reporting.
For readers, the practical implication is more policy risk around trade and industrial strategy. If more regions impose tariffs, quotas, or minimum-price schemes, supply chains and pricing power will shift quickly across autos, electronics, and industrial inputs.
