U.S. consumer confidence edged up in April to 92.8, even as gasoline prices kept households on edge. The gain was modest, but it snapped against a backdrop of record-bad mood in other surveys and suggests the jobs outlook, not prices, is carrying the day for now.
In practice, the Conference Board found the share of consumers seeing jobs as plentiful versus hard to get improved, lifting its labor-market differential to 7.5 percent from 6.1 percent in March. A separate AP report noted that short-term expectations for income, business and employment still sat below the recession-warning threshold of 80 for a 15th straight month, while current conditions slipped slightly.
That leaves the consumer split between near-term resilience and longer-term strain. The national average gas price was $4.18 a gallon this week, and the share of people planning vacations fell to a 12-month low, while homebuying intentions improved and vehicle buying interest hit a nearly 1.5-year high, signs that households are still spending selectively.
The next test is Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision, when policymakers are widely expected to keep the benchmark rate in the 3.50 percent to 3.75 percent range. If energy prices stay elevated and confidence data continue to diverge, the question is whether the recent lift in sentiment proves temporary or starts to feed into actual spending later this spring.
