On Tuesday, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell to 88.7 in November, its lowest reading since April, as Americans reacted to the recently ended 43‑day government shutdown, stubborn inflation and a softening job market. Both AP and CNBC reported that views deteriorated across income and political groups, with the expectations index dropping sharply and more respondents saying jobs are “hard to get.”
The timing matters. The survey ran through November 18, just days after the shutdown cut pay to federal workers, disrupted contracts and snarled air travel. At the same time, private data from ADP showed average weekly job losses over the past month, and other surveys like the University of Michigan gauge confirmed weakening sentiment. Economists quoted by Jefferies and others see rising downside risks to spending, even as they caution that consumption has often diverged from confidence in recent years.
Hard data paints a mixed picture. Shutdown‑delayed reports showed September retail sales rose just 0.2%, missing forecasts and turning negative in real terms once inflation is accounted for. Spending cooled in discretionary categories such as electronics, clothing and sporting goods, while wealthier households kept overall consumption afloat. This “K‑shaped” pattern, where higher‑income consumers keep spending and lower‑income families struggle with prices, is contributing to widespread public frustration with the economy despite solid headline GDP.
For the holidays and early 2026, the key question is whether anxiety finally curbs actual outlays. Early reports from retailers like Best Buy suggest brand‑driven and high‑income demand remains resilient, but economists at firms including Wells Fargo and BMO warn that moderating job gains and compounding price increases could sap momentum. If confidence stays depressed and labor data softens, pressure will grow on policymakers to support growth, even as incomplete government statistics make the true state of the economy harder to read.
