Most forecasters are entering 2026 expecting continued expansion, but with widening distributional strain. The economy has repeatedly surprised pessimists since 2022, and the consensus now is not recession. Instead, analysts see a K-shaped pattern. High-income consumers and AI-linked firms keep spending, while lower-income households face elevated borrowing costs and lingering price level shock.
Professional predictions collected by Planet Money’s 2026 roundup highlight the split. Goldman Sachs projects 2.6% U.S. GDP growth and estimates consumers could receive about $100B in extra refunds in the first half of the year, roughly 0.4% of annual disposable income. J.P. Morgan is more cautious, putting recession odds at 35%, reflecting concerns about tariffs, inflation, and weakening non-tech demand.
Policy is the catalyst for early-year growth, and also the biggest swing factor. The One Big, Beautiful Bill Act is expected to deliver its maximum punch in early 2026, with fiscal policy adding about 2.3 percentage points to first-quarter GDP growth on one widely cited measure. Meanwhile, the same Axios analysis flags trade uncertainty. A Supreme Court decision could either curb unilateral tariffs or force a messy refund process, both of which would hit business planning and price expectations.
Affordability remains the political accelerant. The same Axios piece notes the CPI is up 2.7% over the past 12 months but still 23.7% since January 2021, with groceries up 24.6% over that period. That’s why the White House quietly shelved some consumer-facing levies, like a planned pasta tariff, signaling sensitivity to sticker shock heading into midterms.
Plan for a year where headline growth can look fine while everyday pressure persists. The investing and business implication is simple. Demand may hold, but politics, prices, and rate sensitivity will drive volatility.
