U.S. mortgage borrowers are entering 2026 with slightly better headline rates, but not enough to reset affordability. Freddie Mac’s weekly survey showed the average 30-year fixed mortgage at 6.15%, down from 6.18% a week earlier and the lowest reading of 2025. That helps at the margin, especially for buyers who have been sitting out since rates hovered near 7% earlier in the year.
Refinancing is seeing similar, slightly higher levels. Fortune, citing Zillow data, put the average 30-year fixed refi rate at 6.23%, with 15-year refis around 5.51% as of Dec. 31. Those numbers matter because the “lock-in effect” still pins many homeowners to ultra-low pandemic-era mortgages, reducing listings and keeping prices firmer than buyers would like.
Affordability is the stubborn constraint. Investopedia summarized a Zillow analysis finding rates would need to fall more than 4 percentage points nationally to make a typical home affordable for a median-income family, assuming a 20% down payment and a payment under 30% of income. In other words, moving from roughly 6.18% to near 2% would be required for a broad affordability reset, which is not a base-case forecast.
Meanwhile, the broader macro backdrop is mixed for housing. Fox Business noted the 10-year Treasury yield around 4.14%, the anchor mortgage rates tend to track, while the labor market has softened. It also cited November job growth of 64,000 and unemployment at 4.6%, a combination that could eventually push yields lower but also makes lenders and buyers more cautious.
For readers, the practical move is to treat today’s rate dip as optionality, not a turning point. Run refinance math carefully against closing costs and watch whether supply, not just rates, improves in Q1.
