Recent US readings have revived hopes of a soft landing as inflation eases and growth stays intact, but policymakers remain cautious. According to a market summary, headline momentum and underlying price pressures have moderated, with core consumer prices showing clear loosening that keeps the Fed on guard rather than declaring victory. Soft landing looks more plausible
On closer inspection, the picture is mixed. The January employment and inflation snapshots looked healthy — employers added jobs and headline CPI cooled — yet revisions and sector detail weaken the confidence in that strength. The Labor Department report showed firms added about 130,000 jobs in January, while January CPI measured near 2.4% year-over-year, but underlying monthly patterns and downward revisions leave momentum fragile.
- Key figures: 2.5% core CPI, 130,000 jobs, 44.8 sentiment, 5.2% unemployment, 4.2% wages — see linked sources above and below for context. UK jobless 5.2%
Across the Atlantic, the UK shows sharper cracks. The S&P Global consumer sentiment index printed **44.8**, signaling weak household willingness to spend as borrowing rises, while official data put unemployment at **5.2%** and regular wage growth at about **4.2%**, weakening Bank of England (BoE) inflation cover and lifting market bets on rate cuts. S&P survey and jobless report
What this means for markets and policy is practical and immediate. The Fed is likely to stay data-dependent rather than rush to ease, while the BoE looks more likely to cut if labour weakness persists; investors are already nudging rate-cut odds higher. Watch next week's activity and inflation prints for fresh direction, and size positions for volatility if either side of the transatlantic divergence sharpens. Market pricing
Position for a cautiously constructive US outlook but hedge for policy surprises and a UK consumer drag; check incoming CPI, payroll revisions, and the next BoE statement.
